Snuggie and The Final GC -SPOILERS

What an amazing stage. I probably only needed to watch the time Trials and Stage 20 to get the real feel for how this year's Tour would turn out.

According to Phil Liggett, "We've had a great Tour de France." But he said that about five minutes ago after commentating at the end of Stage 20.

Well, the Tour de France has 21 stages and doesn't officially go into the books until after tomorrow. But he was right. The Tour is essentially over. Contador, Schleck and Armstrong are expected to be 1, 2, and 3 on the Podium in Paris.

Why is that? Well, the unwritten rules of the Tour de France dictate that nobody attack the Yellow Jersey or the top riders on the final stage of the race.

So as we go into Paris tomorrow, the GC shapes up as follows - current as of 10:53AM EST in the United States... (and the reason I put Snuggie in the title is because VERSUS is running Snuggie ads - in JULY!)

1. CONTADOR Alberto 21 ASTANA 81h 46' 17"
2. SCHLECK Andy 31 TEAM SAXO BANK 81h 50' 28" + 04' 11"
3. ARMSTRONG Lance 22 ASTANA 81h 51' 41" + 05' 24"
4. WIGGINS Bradley 58 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 81h 52' 18" + 06' 01"
5. SCHLECK Frank 36 TEAM SAXO BANK 81h 52' 21" + 06' 04"
6. KLÖDEN Andréas 23 ASTANA 81h 52' 59" + 06' 42"
7. NIBALI Vincenzo 95 LIQUIGAS 81h 53' 52" + 07' 35"
8. VANDE VELDE Christian 51 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 81h 58' 21" + 12' 04"
9. KREUZIGER Roman 93 LIQUIGAS 82h 00' 33" + 14' 16"
10. LE MEVEL Christophe 106 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 82h 00' 42" + 14' 25"
11. ASTARLOZA Mikel 61 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 82h 01' 01" + 14' 44"
12. CASAR Sandy 101 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 82h 03' 36" + 17' 19"
13. KARPETS Vladimir 161 TEAM KATUSHA 82h 04' 51" + 18' 34"
14. NOCENTINI Rinaldo 87 AG2R LA MONDIALE 82h 07' 02" + 20' 45"
15. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 17 SILENCE - LOTTO 82h 07' 07" + 20' 50"
16. GOUBERT Stephane 85 AG2R LA MONDIALE 82h 08' 46" + 22' 29"
17. SASTRE Carlos 1 CERVELO TEST TEAM 82h 12' 38" + 26' 21"
18. BOTCHAROV Alexandre 162 TEAM KATUSHA 82h 15' 50" + 29' 33"
19. HINCAPIE George 74 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 82h 19' 44" + 33' 27"
20. CHAVANEL Sylvain 151 QUICK STEP 82h 20' 26" + 34' 09"
21. KNEES Christian 185 TEAM MILRAM 82h 21' 05" + 34' 48"
22. ROLLAND Pierre 148 BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM 82h 24' 01" + 37' 44"
23. ROCHE Nicolas 89 AG2R LA MONDIALE 82h 24' 37" + 38' 20"
24. GERDEMANN Linus 181 TEAM MILRAM 82h 24' 52" + 38' 35"
25. FEILLU Brice 174 AGRITUBEL 82h 27' 31" + 41' 14"
26. SANCHEZ Luis-Leon 118 CAISSE D’EPARGNE 82h 27' 44" + 41' 27"
27. MONFORT Maxime 77 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 82h 29' 37" + 43' 20"
28. ZUBELDIA Haimar 29 ASTANA 82h 29' 51" + 43' 34"
29. MOREAU Christophe 171 AGRITUBEL 82h 30' 50" + 44' 33"
30. EVANS Cadel 11 SILENCE - LOTTO 82h 31' 41" + 45' 24"
31. SORENSEN Nicki 38 TEAM SAXO BANK 82h 32' 51" + 46' 34"
32. VELITS Peter 187 TEAM MILRAM 82h 32' 52" + 46' 35"
33. DUPONT Hubert 84 AG2R LA MONDIALE 82h 36' 00" + 49' 43"
34. SORENSEN Chris 37 TEAM SAXO BANK 82h 36' 04" + 49' 47"
35. PAULINHO Sergio 26 ASTANA 82h 40' 17" + 54' 00"
36. MARTIN Tony 76 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 82h 41' 21" + 55' 04"
37. PELLIZOTTI Franco 91 LIQUIGAS 82h 41' 50" + 55' 33"
38. MINARD Sébastien 127 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 82h 43' 54" + 57' 37"
39. PASAMONTES Luis 116 CAISSE D’EPARGNE 82h 44' 04" + 57' 47"

Sometime after tomorrow I'll give a wrap-up post. Thanks for reading.

Attention Deficit?

Well, as of a few minutes ago - NO, this isn't a spoiler unless you're five days behind - Lance Armstrong was still slated to appear on the podium in Paris.

His 2009 Tour de France is still going as planned and the exposure he's garnered for LiveStrong has been huge.

Talk of his 2010 Tour is already buzzing about the pressrooms and fans are starting to tune in elsewhere for their sports info.

Seriously. For many Americans, the Tour de France ended when Contador took a 2+ minute lead in the Yellow Jersey. They felt there was little to cheer about or watch now that Lance wasn't going to win.

Well, it could turn out a couple of ways.

Right now there are three stages left, only two that matter. Today's Stage 19 178KM ride from Bourgoin-Jallieu to Aubenas. An up and down journey that has one category 2 climb on it and should probably see a break or two, but nothing to threaten Contador's lead.

Then Stage 20. The stage everyone has talked about since the Tour route was announced last fall.

Stage 20 is only 167KM and runs from Montélimar to Mont Ventoux. What makes it special is that the finishing climb is 23KM long as is Hors Categorie.

That's 23KM that could decimate the field and shake up the podium again.

I don't see Contador having trouble staying in the lead. I mean he's got minutes ahead of the field. But if Lance can do well he might move into second place overall.

The other ifs are if Andy Schleck does well, he could destroy Lance, Contador and Astanà and take the Yellow Jersey.

And then there are always the strategic moves on the road. Barring crash by Contador, this is now his race to lose. The top five will probably look close to what it is now. And Lance Armstrong will be somewhere in the mix.

What have you enjoyed the most this year? I've just liked watching some cycling while we have rain every day here in Boston.

A delay in posting

Didn't put anything up for a day because I was astonished at the team-focused approach from Lance Armstrong and the rest of Astanà.

Looks like barring any major failures on the road for Contador, the 2009 Tour de France is his. Even with the Schleck brothers shaking up the top of the GC, there isn't anyone within a few minutes of Alberto.

Now this shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who has watched Contador ride this year, but it still took me a little by surprise. Especially when I saw today's result and realized that Lance is now pretty much out of the running even if he puts two minutes into Alberto in the Time Trial.

So what's the plan? The buzz at the race has all shifted to next year's race. Really. Among Americans, they're all talking about how Lance is starting his own team and will be battling Contador next year.

Even I'm a little interested in how that plays out. So much so that I didn't watch the last two stages - I just got the results online and on my iPhone.

So what still has you enthralled? There is still a bunch of great riding to come. But are you fading at the same rate as Lance's chances? Gimme a shout. Let me know.

Rest Day, Overview, Look Ahead

Here it is 5:50AM near Boston, MA on the east coast of the United States. The 2009 Tour de France has a much-needed rest day and the overall standings have been shaken up with a Stage 14 that showed the world who can really ride a bike.

1 - Alberto Contador looks strong. Really strong. As in, if he wanted to this guy could have been in Yellow from day two of the race.

2 - Lance Armstrong looks strong. Really strong. As in, if he wanted to stay with Contador on the attack yesterday he probably could have.

What does that mean to the rest of the racers and about the final stages of the Tour?

It means either Lance or Contador will win the race

It means if Contador puts another minute into Lance, the race is probably sealed up.

It means if the lead stays at around a minute, the race will come down to the final mountain stage before Paris - that's Stage 20. And there's an Hors Category climb to finish the race that day.

Because with a lead of one minute, Alberto Contador could end up behind Lance Armstrong after the individual time trial on Stage 18 on July 23. That's a 40KM TT that would allow Lance to put up to two or three minutes into Contador.

What do you think is going to happen? My predictions from earlier have been shot slightly out of the water. I had believed Contador would have crashed out - but that happened to Levi Leipheimer instead.

If you remember - here is my post from early on. I didn't have Contador or Schleck in there at all. I had Hincapie in fourth and Denis Menchov was there too. I was wrong to a degree, but we still have a week of racing to see how it all shakes out.

Enjoy your rest day, see you tomorrow.

Who's telling the truth?

Yesterday in Stage 14, George Hincapie missed taking the Yellow Jersey by a mere five seconds.

There were accusations by Hincapie that Astanà and Garmin purposefully kept him out of the jersey.

Bob Roll reported on VERSUS that Hincapie will probably keep all this in mind and will try to personally destroy Garmin and Astanà if he can.

The sport is about respect, and when those two teams attacked Hincapie's lead they clearly were not showing him respect.

This is the development that could blow this year's Tour de France to pieces.

More to come - today they're in the Alps on Stage 15.

My prediction for the day - I bet Contador and/or Armstrong take over the jersey today. Maybe for good.

What do you think?

Big Break. Big Shakeup. SPOILERS!!!

SPOILERS BELOW SPOILERS BELOW SPOILERS BELOW

Guess what! I was right. The peloton was obliterated today by a pack of riders - at times as big as 12 - and the GC has been shaken up like it was put in a blender.

Essentially, George Hincapie and a few other riders decided to pull away from the Yellow Jersey and put a hurt on the rest of the field.

The stage - 199KM from Colmar to Besançon - had some climbs, but nothing major, and was considered a day for the sprinters.

It also had a lot of wet windy roads and this weather allowed Hincapie and others to steam ahead.

AND, at about 100KM to go, Hincapie was the leader on the road with a lead of a few seconds over the Yellow Jersey and the Peloton.

Here's how it all ended and after that are all the standings. Oh, by the way, you remember how I used to only show the GC all the way down to George Hincapie? Well, I'll give you the top 50 since George is so well placed now.

1. IVANOV Serguei 165 TEAM KATUSHA 4h 37' 46"
2. ROCHE Nicolas 89 AG2R LA MONDIALE 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
3. ROULSTON Hayden 9 CERVELO TEST TEAM 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
4. MAASKANT Martijn 55 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
5. MINARD Sébastien 127 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
6. RIGHI Daniele 136 LAMPRE - N.G.C 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
7. LE MEVEL Christophe 106 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
8. HINCAPIE George 74 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
9. BENNATI Daniele 92 LIQUIGAS 4h 38' 02" + 00' 16"
10. CIOLEK Gerald 182 TEAM MILRAM 4h 38' 08" + 00' 22"
11. TIMMER Albert 198 SKIL-SHIMANO 4h 38' 12" + 00' 26"
12. WILLEMS Frederik 99 LIQUIGAS 4h 41' 27" + 03' 41"
13. HUSHOVD Thor 6 CERVELO TEST TEAM 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
14. RENSHAW Mark 78 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
15. HUTAROVICH Yauheni 104 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
16. ROJAS Jose Joaquin 117 CAISSE D’EPARGNE 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
17. DE KORT Koen 193 SKIL-SHIMANO 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
18. BANDIERA Marco 132 LAMPRE - N.G.C 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
19. LANCASTER Brett Daniel 8 CERVELO TEST TEAM 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
20. ROY Jérémy 107 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
21. COYOT Arnaud 114 CAISSE D’EPARGNE 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
22. VANDENBERGH Styn 169 TEAM KATUSHA 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
23. EISEL Bernhard 72 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
24. HAUSSLER Heinrich 5 CERVELO TEST TEAM 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
25. TRUSSOV Nicolaï 168 TEAM KATUSHA 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
26. DE JONGH Steven 154 QUICK STEP 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
27. DUQUE Leonardo 124 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
28. MONFORT Maxime 77 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
29. O’GRADY Stuart 35 TEAM SAXO BANK 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
30. SCHLECK Andy 31 TEAM SAXO BANK 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
31. SCHLECK Frank 36 TEAM SAXO BANK 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
32. VOIGT Jens 39 TEAM SAXO BANK 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
33. FARRAR Tyler 53 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
34. GRABSCH Bert 73 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
35. EVANS Cadel 11 SILENCE - LOTTO 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
36. VANDE VELDE Christian 51 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
37. CONTADOR Alberto 21 ASTANA 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
38. BONNET William 143 BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
39. GOUBERT Stephane 85 AG2R LA MONDIALE 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
40. KUSCHYNSKI Aleksandr 94 LIQUIGAS 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
41. DUMOULIN Samuel 123 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
42. MARTIN Tony 76 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
43. POPOVYCH Yaroslav 27 ASTANA 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
44. KERN Christophe 126 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
45. NOCENTINI Rinaldo 87 AG2R LA MONDIALE 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
46. PAULINHO Sergio 26 ASTANA 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
47. KREUZIGER Roman 93 LIQUIGAS 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
48. KLÖDEN Andréas 23 ASTANA 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
49. ARMSTRONG Lance 22 ASTANA 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"
50. NIERMANN Grischa 47 RABOBANK 4h 43' 22" + 05' 36"

As you can see, George only put 4:38 or so into the pack. Here's the GC up to 50th spot...

1. NOCENTINI Rinaldo 87 AG2R LA MONDIALE 58h 13' 52"
2. HINCAPIE George 74 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 58h 13' 57" + 00' 05"
3. CONTADOR Alberto 21 ASTANA 58h 13' 58" + 00' 06"
4. ARMSTRONG Lance 22 ASTANA 58h 14' 00" + 00' 08"
5. LE MEVEL Christophe 106 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 58h 14' 35" + 00' 43"
6. WIGGINS Bradley 58 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 58h 14' 38" + 00' 46"
7. KLÖDEN Andréas 23 ASTANA 58h 14' 46" + 00' 54"
8. MARTIN Tony 76 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 58h 14' 52" + 01' 00"
9. VANDE VELDE Christian 51 GARMIN - SLIPSTREAM 58h 15' 16" + 01' 24"
10. SCHLECK Andy 31 TEAM SAXO BANK 58h 15' 41" + 01' 49"
11. NIBALI Vincenzo 95 LIQUIGAS 58h 15' 46" + 01' 54"
12. SANCHEZ Luis-Leon 118 CAISSE D’EPARGNE 58h 16' 08" + 02' 16"
13. MONFORT Maxime 77 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 58h 16' 13" + 02' 21"
14. SCHLECK Frank 36 TEAM SAXO BANK 58h 16' 17" + 02' 25"
15. KREUZIGER Roman 93 LIQUIGAS 58h 16' 32" + 02' 40"
16. EFIMKIN Vladimir 81 AG2R LA MONDIALE 58h 16' 37" + 02' 45"
17. SASTRE Carlos 1 CERVELO TEST TEAM 58h 16' 44" + 02' 52"
18. ASTARLOZA Mikel 61 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 58h 16' 54" + 03' 02"
19. EVANS Cadel 11 SILENCE - LOTTO 58h 16' 59" + 03' 07"
20. KIRCHEN Kim 75 TEAM COLUMBIA - HTC 58h 17' 08" + 03' 16"
21. KARPETS Vladimir 161 TEAM KATUSHA 58h 17' 41" + 03' 49"
22. FEILLU Brice 174 AGRITUBEL 58h 17' 48" + 03' 56"
23. CASAR Sandy 101 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 58h 17' 50" + 03' 58"
24. ZUBELDIA Haimar 29 ASTANA 58h 18' 06" + 04' 14"
25. POPOVYCH Yaroslav 27 ASTANA 58h 18' 12" + 04' 20"
26. GERDEMANN Linus 181 TEAM MILRAM 58h 18' 12" + 04' 20"
27. SORENSEN Nicki 38 TEAM SAXO BANK 58h 18' 30" + 04' 38"
28. BOTCHAROV Alexandre 162 TEAM KATUSHA 58h 18' 52" + 05' 00"
29. MENCHOV Denis 41 RABOBANK 58h 18' 54" + 05' 02"
30. VELITS Peter 187 TEAM MILRAM 58h 19' 20" + 05' 28"
31. GOUBERT Stephane 85 AG2R LA MONDIALE 58h 20' 46" + 06' 54"
32. LARSSON Gustav 34 TEAM SAXO BANK 58h 20' 51" + 06' 59"
33. MONCOUTIE David 121 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 58h 21' 34" + 07' 42"
34. SORENSEN Chris 37 TEAM SAXO BANK 58h 21' 58" + 08' 06"
35. KNEES Christian 185 TEAM MILRAM 58h 22' 13" + 08' 21"
36. VAN DEN BROECK Jurgen 17 SILENCE - LOTTO 58h 23' 29" + 09' 37"
37. ROLLAND Pierre 148 BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM 58h 23' 51" + 09' 59"
38. MARTINEZ Egoi 64 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 58h 25' 01" + 11' 09"
39. ROCHE Nicolas 89 AG2R LA MONDIALE 58h 25' 17" + 11' 25"
40. CHAVANEL Sylvain 151 QUICK STEP 58h 25' 40" + 11' 48"
41. PAULINHO Sergio 26 ASTANA 58h 26' 11" + 12' 19"
42. PELLIZOTTI Franco 91 LIQUIGAS 58h 26' 13" + 12' 21"
43. GOMEZ MARCHANTE Jose Angel 3 CERVELO TEST TEAM 58h 26' 24" + 12' 32"
44. ROY Jérémy 107 FRANCAISE DES JEUX 58h 28' 04" + 14' 12"
45. GUSTOV Volodymir 4 CERVELO TEST TEAM 58h 28' 42" + 14' 50"
46. TXURRUKA Amets 68 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 58h 31' 33" + 17' 41"
47. TROFIMOV Yury 149 BBOX BOUYGUES TELECOM 58h 32' 47" + 18' 55"
48. GARATE Juan Manuel 45 RABOBANK 58h 34' 26" + 20' 34"
49. DUPONT Hubert 84 AG2R LA MONDIALE 58h 34' 47" + 20' 55"
50. VOIGT Jens 39 TEAM SAXO BANK 58h 36' 54" + 23' 02"

Stage 13 and a prediction (again)

Stage 13 was great - except for the fact that Levi abandoned before the stage.

The end of the race didn't cause any major shakeup in the overall standings, but it made me think about the upcoming stages.

First, the weather seems to have been a bit worse than what the riders would prefer and it allowed a large break during Stage 13.

My guess is that if there's another bad day, an even larger group will escape and maybe change the GC.

We'll find out in Stage 14.